пятница, 30 ноября 2012 г.
Asian stocks and euro trade stronger
Telecommunications and health stocks were the winners in New York last night as Dow Jones and Nasdaq rose marginally. The Dow Jones industrial average passed the 13 000 mark and seems to end the week in positive territory. Investors were buying on sporadic dips roiled by conflicting comments from Washington about negotiations on a budget compromise to avoid the “fiscal cliff”, fear for a combination of budget cuts and tax hikes. Wall Street reversed early gains and fell after the Speaker of the House, leading Republican John Boehner, dashed hopes that lawmakers were getting closer to a deal. It picked up at greater optimism for a compromise at the end of the session. The extreme volatility in the markets is probably continuing as long with the stalemate in Congress.
Stock markets in Europe ended in positive territory yesterday on initial compromise optimism from both President Obama and the House Speaker Wednesday night. The exchanges in Asia started the trading day on a positive note. Asian shares rose to a nine-month peak Friday morning. Japan’s industrial output rose unexpectedly 1,8 percent in October, up for the first time in four months. This along with a new announced stimulus package from the Japanese government helped Nikkei win 0,8%. Also the Shanghai and Taiwan bourses produced healthy gains. The mining giant Rio Tinto is up 3 percent upon presenting savings and restructuring measures worth USD 5 billion.
Japanese yen is losing on the stimulus plans after gaining against the dollar earlier in the week. USD/JPY is trading at 82,45 well inside the newly established 81 – 83 corridor. Euro/USD is again stronger at 1.2999 up 50 points from yesterday’s start. The euro reached 1.3015 on Thursday, the highest level seen since 31st October. The euro is helped by the bail-out package for Greece. It is expected that a skeptical German parliament will approve the support for Greece in a vote today. This will probably give the euro a new temporary boost.
The US government said yesterday that third-quarter gross domestic product expanded at a 2,7 percent annual rate, the fastest pace since late 2011. Export growth help offset weakest consumer spending and the first drop in business investment in more than a year. Brent crude is trading at USD 110, 49 a barrel marginally up from Thursday. US crude futures, NYMEX, is falling 0,4 percent. Increased tensions and escalating violence in Syria and Egypt are stoking permanent fear of oil supply disruptions. Gold has gained back 20 dollars from yesterday’s steep fall and trades at 1727. Silver is at USD 34,20 an ounce, the same level as seen at the peak earlier in the week.
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четверг, 29 ноября 2012 г.
Bipartisan statements turn markets around
“The fiscal cliff” seems over the last couple of days to have taken over completely as the dominant theme in the market. Statements on Tuesday from the Democratic Senate leader, Henry Reid, expressing disappointing progress towards a budget compromise with the Republicans had the markets to tumble. Yesterday it was the other way around. When president Obama expressed hope for a deficit deal by Christmas markets made a sharp U-turn. Dow Jones and Nasdaq which had started in red territory, ended 0,83 and 0,81 percent up with Hewlett Packard, Chevron, American Express and Pfizer showing the way as cracks seemed to surface in the Republican front against any tax rises. Stocks rallied when House Speaker and leading Republican, Joe Boehner, stated that a compromise was possible to avoid the “fiscal cliff”.
Whether these remarks reflect the reality of the negotiations is another story. The “fiscal cliff” of budget cuts and tax hikes dominate the discussion and influence a world market driven by psychology. Optimistic statements are immediately given a positive spin regardless of realities. The markets are going to live with these sentiments in the coming weeks and we are most probably going to see volatility and big day-to-day changes in stocks as well as commodities and currencies. Yesterday gold was hardest hit and fell 40 dollar an ounce during the session. It has recovered and trades at present at 1722. Also oil and silver took a hard punch to normalize around USD 110 a barrels for Brent crude and 33,70 for silver.
Euro/USD fell 70 points during one session and saw a low on 1.2875 before climbing back to 1.2955 and the same level as last Friday when the common currency was strengthened by the prospects of a debt deal on Greece in Brussels. By finalizing the deal Monday night the Euro reached 1.3010 to plunge back to yesterday’s low levels. The comments from US policy makers rekindled hopes of avoiding a crash landing on the US budget; and strengthened the Euro.
USD/JPY has also demonstrated great volatility during the last week. It is now trading at 82,14 bouncing back from a week high on 81,68 against the dollar on Wednesday. The dollar has corrected after reaching a 7 ½ month high of 82,84 last week. The yen has been under pressure over the last couple of weeks on speculations about aggressive monetary easing in Japan after the elections in mid-December. It is expected that USD/JPY is going to continue to trade in a range between 81 and 83 till we have seen the outcome of the elections.
Asian shares touched their highest levels in more than three weeks. The MSCI-index for Asia-Pacific jumped 1 percent after ending a seven-day winning streak on Wednesday. Also commodities are up on “optimism” for reaching a compromise on the US-budget. Nikkei in Japan and Australian shares were up as the Shanghai composite index as yesterday saw its lowest level since January 2009.
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среда, 28 ноября 2012 г.
Focus shift back to “fiscal cliff”
Budget talks and the “fiscal cliff” is back in focus after leaving the euro finance ministers agreement on Greek debt cuts on the agenda in the very start of the week. The euro’s short won gains against the USD were eaten up during yesterday. Euro/USD is trading at 1.2939 after falling fifty basis points in the afternoon of yesterday. The Japanese Yen strengthens versus dollar. After USD/JPY has traded in the interval between 82.15 to 82,65, yen is this morning below 82 at 81,95. Asian shares ended a seven-day winning streak this morning. The share index for Asia-Pacific stocks, MSCI, fell 0,5 % and commodities eased as lack of progress in talks on US budget threatened to threw the US economy back in recession.
President Barack Obama launched yesterday a public relations push for his bid to raise taxes on wealthy Americans. US lawmakers remained, however deadlocked over dramatic year-end tax increases and spending cuts known as the “fiscal cliff”. Obama met with small business leaders in the White House. They urged Obama to keep the tax cuts for the middle class to increase consumption and job creation. The US tycoon, Warren Buffet, simultaneously, called on the rich to pay more and proposed a minimum tax on 30 % on incomes between USD 1 and 10 million and 35 % on incomes above.
Senate majority leader Harry Reid expressed last night disappointment over modest progress in the budget negotiations. The remarks had US stocks to slide. Dow Jones lost 0,69 percent and Nasdaq 0,30. Statistics could on the other hand report on record high Thanksgiving sales and the highest US-consumer optimism in 5 years. The Shanghai composite Index slid 0,7 % and the Chinese stock markets to its lowest in nearly four years extending earlier losses and closing below 2000 points for the first time since January 2009. The weak Chinese stock market along with increasing doubts over US ability to resolve the fiscal crisis have over the last weeks strengthened demand for sovereign debt. Japanese government bond futures rise to a 9 and half year high.
Digesting the Greek debt deal comments on Twitter dismissed it as another exercise in kicking the can down the road. A degree of kicking is obvious. There is, however a critical element in the new deal which goes further than any step taken so far to get Greece back on its feet. There is an implicit understanding that Greece will undergo some form of official-sector debt restructuring with euro zone countries at some point in the future forgiving a portion of Greece’s debt. This sort of last-ditch measure is usually reserved for impoverished states in Africa and Latin America. German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble came close to acknowledging such an eventuality on a later press conference.
Oil prices are down a dollar since yesterday. Brent crude is trading at 110. Gold is also down from 1750 to 1741 breaking the good upward trend seen over the last days. Silver at USD 34 is also down.
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вторник, 27 ноября 2012 г.
UWC SITE IS NOW AVAILABLE IN CHINESE
United World Capital (“UWC”) is excited to announce that our site and client cabinet are now available in Chinese language.
We make every effort to assist our clients in a best possible way. Since the re-launch of our site in June 2012, we have been working non- stop on further developments and advancements of our products services. As of today, our site and Client Cabinet are available in English, Russian, Spanish, German, Portuguese, Malay and Chinese with more languages coming soon.
http://www.uwcfx.com/en/news/1333/news-1333
Euro ministers finally agree on Greek debt
Euro zone finance ministers and the International Monetary Fund, IMF, finally reached a deal on Monday to reduce Greece’s debt. After 12 hour of negotiations Greece’s international lenders agreed on measures to reduce Greek debt by 40 billion euro, cutting the debt ratio between debt and GDP (gross domestic product) to 124 percent by 2020. Urgently needed loans to keep the bankrupt economy afloat were simultaneously released. In a significant new pledge ministers committed themselves to lower Greece’s debt below 110 percent by 2022. This is so far the most explicit recognition that some loans have to written off from 2016 when Greece is supposed to reach a primary budget surplus.
After two weeks of haggling, markets reacted with relief on the aid package. Stock markets in Asia continued up. The MSCI index for the south Pacific region outside Japan gained 0,6 percent, and the Euro/USD is trading at its highest level in weeks at 1.2985, marginally up from yesterday. Upon the release of the news from Greece, the euro reached 1.3010. Also the Australian dollar is trading at its highest level in two months versus dollar. USD/JPY was falling in early Asian trade, but has recovered at 82,15. Dow Jones was down and Nasdaq marginally up yesterday waiting for the outcome from Brussels.
Oil prices are steady. New York crude (NYMEX) is USD 88 a barrel. Brent crude is 111,04. Commodity prices are up helped by news on big infrastructural programs in China. Gold keeps around 1750 after reaching 1754 on Friday. Silver is slightly up in the morning trade in Asia at 34,20.
The agreement in Brussels has given the market a breathing spell. Investors focus is now likely to shift back to another major concern hanging over the markets, the looming US fiscal crisis. Republicans asked on Monday president Barack Obama to detail long term spending cuts to help solve the countries fiscal crisis. The Republicans are holding firm against any income tax rate increases for the wealthy that Democrats seek. If a compromise deal on the budget drags out, new focus on the “fiscal cliff” would for sure create nervousness and dampened investors risk appetite.
With big funds winding down their positions ahead of the new year-end, many analysts see it unlikely with major changes in the currency markets. The euro which has gained two percent over the last days is not set for major new gains in the short term. Any further rise in the Euro will likely be countered by selling to cap the euro’s upside. USD/JPY has fallen considerably over the last weeks and no major development is expected before the Japanese elections in mid-December and an eventual new government’s likely monetary easing.
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понедельник, 26 ноября 2012 г.
EURO rises on Greek hopes
The Euro hit a seven-month high against the yen and held a one-month peak versus dollar when the trading week opened in Asia this morning. The Euro was supported by hopes that Greece will finally secure more emergency loans when EU Finance ministers meet in Brussels today. Euro/USD is trading at 1.2963 after reaching 1.2969 on Friday bringing its weekly gain to 1,75 percent and above the 1.2945 level which it began 2012.
Asian shares inched up on Monday on hopes that Greece can avoid a near term bankruptcy. A regional Spanish vote favoring separatist parties capped gains. The stock futures for US suggest a soft opening while European futures are falling. The Asian Pacific index, MSCI, rose 0,2 percent marking advance for the sixth consecutive day. There is market optimism on the euro area’s ability to reach a deal on Greece, but worries about the vote of Catalonian independence from Spain and its implications for Spain’s austerity measures and bond rates remain high.
Oil, commodities and precious metals saw gains on a weaker dollar last week. Brent crude is trading above USD 111 a barrel in Asia, and gold surpassed the 1750 level on Friday as central banks boost reserves. Both gold and silver fell somewhat back in early Asian trade. Gold dipped below 1750 and silver trades at 34,05. Gold saw its five week high helped by a weaker dollar and investor confidence. Both pension funds. Sovereign wealth funds and private investors have been buying gold along with central banks in Brazil, Russia, Mexico, India, South Korea and Thailand. The buying has also been prompted by devaluation concerns of major currencies.
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пятница, 23 ноября 2012 г.
Good week for Asian shares and EURO
Stock indexes continued to rise Friday morning as Asian shares were on course for a weekly gain of more than 2 percent. The Asia Pacific MSCI rose 0,4 percent and reached the highest level seen in two months after manufacturing surveys from China and the United States raised hopes for an improving global growth outlook. Japan and US were closed due to public holidays and Thanksgiving.
EURO/USD is trading at 1.2887 with the Euro enjoying a one percent lift since last Friday’s close. This in spite of yesterday’s data pointing to the Euro zone sliding into its deepest recession since 2009. The Euro has, however, been helped by optimism that a funding deal for Greece will ultimately be found when euro finance ministers meet in Brussels on Monday.
USD/JPY eased 0,1 percent to 82,39 pulling back from Thursday’s high of 82.84 which is the dollar’s strongest level since early April. The dollar has gained 3,7 percent versus yen over the last two weeks. The yen has been weakened on expectations that the Bank of Japan shall implement more drastic monetary stimulus.
Commodity markets were quiet with oil, copper and precious metals staying course to end the week higher than they started. Brent crude is trading at USD 110, 25 and Gold is flat around 1730. Last day’s markets have been subdued by Thanksgiving and enters a new week once again with major focus on the debt crisis in Europe. While a lot of ink has been spilled on the US fiscal cliff the biggest challenge for the global economy rests with the euro zone.
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четверг, 22 ноября 2012 г.
Greek expectations takes EURO higher
German Chancellor Angela Merkel breathed new life into the Euro yesterday when she stated that a deal on the Greek emergency package was still within reach when Euro finance ministers meet on Monday. The Euro hit a 6-1/2 month high against the yen which continue to fall on expectations of more forceful monetary easing in Japan. Euro/USD is also stronger trading at 1.2844.
Investors initially dumped the Euro after Euro finance ministers and IMF, International Monetary Fund, failed to reach a compromise on release of emergency aid for Greece Tuesday night. Merkel’s comments turned the downward trend around. Euro last traded up 1 percent at 105,94 yen. The dollar has over the last seven trading sessions gained 3,9 percent against yen. USD/JPY stands at present at 82,38 giving Japanese exporters a welcomed boost. Yen is broadly falling against other currencies including the Australian dollar.
Analysts are expecting the yen to continue weakening into the Japanese elections in the middle of December. Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) firm intention for asset purchases and forceful monetary easing makes it likely that the yen shall remain vulnerable in the near term.
After relatively quiet equity sessions in Western Europe and the US Asian stocks rose Thursday morning after a survey showed that China’s manufacturing sector in November expanded for the first time in 13 months. Along with US factory data it raised optimism that the global growth slowdown is turning. MSCI broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan raised 0,8 percent to a one week high.
Market sentiments were also boosted by the truce between Hamas and Israel on Gaza. Brent crude trades above USD 110 a barrel. Precious metals and commodities show a firmer upward trend. Gold stands at 1730 and silver trades at 33,40.
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среда, 21 ноября 2012 г.
WEEKLY WINNERS OF THE FOREX DEMO CHAMPIONSHIP FOR THE WEEK 12-16 NOVEMBER
United World
Capital is pleased to announce the following weekly winners of the Forex Demo
Championship for the week 12th -16th November 2012.
1st Place - Prize $1000
Goes to: tradeexpert, acc. 443630
2nd Place - Prize $800
Goes to: win points, acc. 443759
3rd Place – Prize $500
Goes to: Ehis, acc. 428272
Most Active Trader Award- $100
Goes to:sundas, acc. 431011
Congratulations to all winners!
We would like to take this opportunity to thank all participants and to warmly invite all of our clients to take part in our weekly Forex Demo Championship. Remember the Earlier You Join the Contest- the Bigger the Chance You Have of Winning
1st Place - Prize $1000
Goes to: tradeexpert, acc. 443630
2nd Place - Prize $800
Goes to: win points, acc. 443759
3rd Place – Prize $500
Goes to: Ehis, acc. 428272
Most Active Trader Award- $100
Goes to:sundas, acc. 431011
Congratulations to all winners!
We would like to take this opportunity to thank all participants and to warmly invite all of our clients to take part in our weekly Forex Demo Championship. Remember the Earlier You Join the Contest- the Bigger the Chance You Have of Winning
EURO falls on inconclusive Greek talks
The Euro/USD is falling 50 points to 1.2757 after Euro finance ministers and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) failed to reach agreement on a Greek bail-out package. While the EU seems to have been willing to extend with two years the deadline for carrying through austerity measures, IMF was sticking to 2020. Without a consensus emergency aid cannot be disbursed to Greece.
The inconclusive talks helped destroy the positive investor’s sentiment which have been built up over the last days. The Head of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke also talked US stock markets down when he yesterday stated that the Federal Reserve could do nothing to soften the “fiscal cliff”. Dow Jones fell within minutes more than 100 points upon Bernanke’s statement. He added, however, that 2013 might be a bright year for markets if Congress is able to find a compromise between budget cuts and tax hikes. Both Dow Jones and Nasdaq recovered and ended the session flat.
Hewlett Packard, one of the bedrock companies of Silicon Valley, and for decades seen as synonymous with technical excellence and innovation, stunned markets with an alleged massive accounting scandal at its British software unit, Autonomy. Serious accounting improprieties came to light after a whistleblower come forward after the ouster of one of the companies top executives. HP shares plunged with 12 percent and reached a 10-year low. The market value of HP has fallen from $ 155 billion in 2000 to $ 20 billion after yesterday’s “massacre”.
Oil prices fell yesterday afternoon on strong rumors on a truce between Israel and Hamas on Gaza. Expectations for a ceasefire, rose, however, when US secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, arrived to Jerusalem last night to seek an end to one week of fighting. Brent crude trades at 110,03. Gold prices also fell yesterday trading at 1723 down from Tuesday’s peak on 1735. Asian stocks fell for the second day in row on the disappointing news of a failed emergency aid pay out to Greece. The Japanese Nikkei-index is up 0,44 % on a weaker Yen. USD/JPY trades at 81,905
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вторник, 20 ноября 2012 г.
Budget talk’s optimism spurs Wall Street rally
Stocks rallied for a second consecutive session on Monday after budget talks created optimism that Democrats and Republicans would be able to tackle the fiscal crunch and avoid tipping over the “fiscal cliff”. The optimism spilled over to the Asian markets where the Nikkei share average in Tokyo extended its rise into a fifth day in morning trades. The gains were limited by profit taking and Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) awaited policy decision later in the session. It is expected that BOJ will keep policy unchanged. The Asian-Pacific index, MSCI, rose 0,6 percent.
The dollar was steady against a basket of currencies moving away from the two-month high reached on Friday. Precious metals jumped 3 percent on Monday on the dollar’s retreat. Gold reached 1735 and silver trade up close to a dollar on 33.20. USD/JPY is trading at 81.25. Oil prices have increased substantially on tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude reached its highest price level for weeks trading above USD 111 a barrel. NYMEX, New York crude, is sniffing on the 90 level.
Wall Street stocks climbed almost 2 percent extending a rally started on Friday. The rise reflected investors’ view that US lawmakers will be able to reach a compromise to avert USD 600 billion in tax increases and spending cuts due to start in January. This so called “fiscal cliff” threatens to send the US back into recession.
Prospects that Greece will get a lifeline to stay solvent also helped boost markets. The international rating agency, Moody’s, downgraded France’s government bond rating to A1 and kept a negative outlook on the country’s uncertain fiscal outlook and deteriorating economic prospects. The downgrade put the Euro under pressure. Euro/USD fell from a two week high on 1.2810 on Monday to 1.2777 in early Asian trade. It has regained and trades at present on 1.2796.
The Euro zone finance ministers are expected to give a tentative go-ahead for the disbursement of 44 billion euro in emergency loans to Greece later today. Differences between the finance ministers and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on how to tackle the Greek crisis, however, remain, and a positive decision shall in no sway be taken for granted.
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понедельник, 19 ноября 2012 г.
Asia up as USD/JPY trades at seven-month low
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Most markets under-performed last week. There are, however, hopes that US negotiations around the fiscal situation may progress and improve prospect for the stock markets. Japan’s Nikkei surged 2,2 percent Friday and bucked the downtrend in broad Asia. It has extended the gains this morning. Nikkei is 1,3 percent up and trades at a two-month high helped a weaker Yen and expectations that 16th December elections shall bring a new government ready to call for stimulus and a more aggressive easing from the Central Bank of Japan.
Hope that US politicians would find a common ground to steer clear of the “fiscal cliff”, boosted US stocks on Friday. European stocks, however, sank to its lowest level seen since May on US “fiscal cliff” concerns and the euro zone debt crisis. US treasury yields fell to its lowest levels in over two months on Friday as skepticism over the US budget talks drew safe-haven bids. Lawmakers, however, hinted at a possible budget compromise involving budget cuts and tax revenues.
The dollar is still strong after hitting a two month high in early Friday trading against a basket of six major currencies. The drop in Gold helped precious metals. Gold is trading 10 dollar up at 1723. Silver is 32,60 after dipping below 32 on Friday. The Euro rose to 1.2772 on Friday on expectations that the International Monetary Fund, IMF and euro zone finance ministers shall agree on how to make Greece’s debt more manageable. A bundled aid package to avert a Greek default may create a relief rally in the Euro. Euro/USD is at present trading at 1.2762. The short and medium term outlook for the Euro is, however, still bearish.
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пятница, 16 ноября 2012 г.
Bear mood do not recede
The American indexes once again finished trading session in a red zone. Frankly speaking, we have seen so much negative information yesterday that it was possible to expect even more considerable falling. The main headache for investors still is a fiscal cliff.
Today the president of the United States will meet congressmen, and in common they will try to find a way out of current situation. Might be markets will get an occasion to grow up following the results of a meeting. However yesterday’s fears were not limited only to a general picture in the markets. Right after an election of the president in the United States statistics started to spoil. Yesterday was presented very bad data on a primary requests for an unemployment benefit in the USA. Growth of requests made 78 thousand, even slightly more than 20 thousand were expected, the total number of requests made 439 thousand. It is a lot, and raises a reasonable question that so strongly changed in the employment market literally for few weeks.
Besides macroeconomic data there was a weak reporting from Wal-Mart. Business of the largest retailer, many investors consider, as an advancing indicator. Nevertheless, despite this negative, the American markets lost within only 0,2-0,3%.
The trading in the commodities market is stable; Brent grows to 108.1 dollars for barrel, NYMEX decreases to 85.6 dollars for barrel. A favorable factor for growth of the oil prices is the statistics which came yesterday on the fuel market in the USA: so, stocks of crude oil grew to 1.09 million barrels contrary to expectations in 2 million; reduction of stocks of oil products made 2.54 million barrels - was expected 1 million. Continuing conflict in the Middle East will also support growth of oil prices. According to the information from HAMAS, the Air Force of Israel struck the next series of blows to the Gaza this morning.
Precious metals are weak this morning, Silver is losing more than 1% and traded at 32.34, Platinum at 1560.59, Gold is stable at 1712.
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четверг, 15 ноября 2012 г.
Oil prices jump on Gaza tension
Oil prices jumped one and half dollar yesterday on increased violence in the Middle East. Brent crude trading at 109,75. The Head of the military arm of the Hamas Palestinian authority in Gaza was killed along with 10 others in Israeli missile strikes. The new unrest in the region which comes on the top of the Syrian conflict and Iranian-Western tensions on Iran’s nuclear program added to selling pressure on Wall Street. Both Nasdaq and Dow Jones fell substantially. Hardest hit was Bank of America, General Electric, Boeing and Caterpillar. Facebook stock jumped 12,6 percent as a share lock expires. Facebook has fallen more than 50 % percent since the IPO introduction.
In his first press conference after reelection president Barack Obama outlined a compromise on debt/taxes, a new immigration law and renew focus on climate as his immediate priorities. By pledging to raise taxes on the wealthy, Obama set up a drawn-out fight over the fiscal cliff, budget cuts combined with tax hikes. The deadline for reaching a deal between Republicans and Democrats Congress is set to 31st December. With talks over solving the “fiscal cliff” in early stages, investors are reacting to the uncertainty by shedding positions. This points towards a last minute cliffhanger solution. In the meantime the market is going to get punched every day as experienced on Wall Street yesterday.
Without a deal a series of mandated tax hikes and spending cuts will start to take effect early next year. That could push the US economy into recession. Taxes on capital gains and dividends might rise as party of the negotiations. This shall probably push investors to sell in 2012 to pay lower taxes on their gains. Uncertainty inside the Euro zone with the bail-out tranches for Greece still in the air, add to the downside pressure in the equity markets. With the whole Middle Eastern region in deep problems with the Palestinian – Israeli conflict flaring up again, market sentiments remain subdued. Israel is threatening an invasion of Gaza as a following up of the killings. Egypt has recalled its ambassador from Israel in response.
Xi Jinping was yesterday elected new party chief of the Chinese Communist party and received a strong mandate to deal with problems ranging from corruption to economic uncertainty. Asian stocks fell as investors reacted to drawn-out negotiations the “fiscal cliff”. Japanese equities bucked the trend as a sharp slide in the Yen lifted exporters’ shares. The MSCI index fell 0,9 % as did the indexes in Australia and Hong Kong. Copper is weaker and precious metals stabile. Gold at 1725 and Silver at 62,60.
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среда, 14 ноября 2012 г.
THE WINNERS OF THE FOREX DEMO CHAMPIONSHIP FOR THE WEEK 5TH - 9TH NOVEMBER
United World Capital is pleased to announce the following weekly winners of the Forex Demo Championship for the week 5th -9th November 2012.
1st place - Prize $1000
Goes to: teddy, acc. 47029
2nd place - Prize $800
Goes to: HV, acc. 47002
3rd place – Prize $500
Goes to: Manyafx ,acc.- no real account
Most Active Trader Award- $100
Goes to: Abdullah, acc. – no real account
Congratulations to all winners!
We would like to take this opportunity to thank all participants and to warmly invite all of our clients to take part in our weekly Forex Demo Championship.
Remember the Earlier You Join the Contest- the Bigger the Chance You Have of Winning! Sign Up Now! http://www.uwcfx.com/en/forex-trading-championship.html
UWC INVITES TRADERS FOR A FOREX SEMINAR IN MADRID, SPAIN
United World Capital (“UWC”) is delighted to invite all Spanish speaking traders for a free Forex seminar and workshops on 16th November, 2012 in Madrid, Spain.
We would like to encourage both, the beginners and experienced investors to participate in this event.
Read more on http://uwcfx.com/en/news/1300/news-1300
Home Depot and Cisco winners on flat exchange
Microsoft, Caterpillar and IBM were the big losers when stocks were sold off late in the session in New York last night. Retailers were the bright spot when Home Depot raised its outlook. Cisco which presented results after the closing bell, rose 6,8 percent after reporting revenues and earnings that beat analysts’ estimates. Home Depot, a home retail supplier, hit share prices levels not seen since April 2000, confirming greater optimism in the housing sector.
Concerns about the looming “fiscal cliff” kept investor activity subdued as lawmakers returned to Washington after November 6 elections. The markets are grappling with how a divided Congress will deal with a series of mandated tax hikes and spending cuts that will come into effect next year and threaten to take the largest world economy back into recession. Lawmakers were met by news that the US budget deficit continue to raise. The US Treasury said yesterday that October deficit was USD 120 billion larger than economists’ forecasts for a $ 114 million gap and up from $ 98 billion in October 2011. Growth in expenditures far outpaced rising receipts.
Asian shares and the Euro steadied on Wednesday morning, but lacked impetus for a decisive rebound threatened by the “fiscal cliff” and a delay in releasing more aid to debt-stricken Greece. The Euro/USD rebound from 1.260 on Tuesday and trades at 1.2720. USD/JPY stabilized around 79,50. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0,3 percent after falling to a seven-week low in the previous session. Tokyo’s Nikkei edged up 0,1 percent after seven straight days in the red.
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вторник, 13 ноября 2012 г.
Euro hits 2-month low on Greece
The Euro dipped to a two-month low against the dollar. Euro/USD is trading at 1.2680 after Euro zone leaders and the International Monetary Fund, IMF, yesterday failed to agree on a long-term plan to reduce Greece’s debt. This has further delayed the disbursement of immediate aid to Athens. The Greek government is said to be running out of funds during this month. In an effort to secure new emergency funding the Greek parliament last Thursday approved new extensive austerity measures. On Sunday the Greek parliament adopted a strict austerity budget for 2013 seemingly to no avail.
Uncertainty over as well short-term financing and long term debt reduction has made the Euro tumble. After stabilizing inside a corridor between 1.28 and 1.30 for weeks, the Euro seems again in free fall. There is little chance that the Euro zone will desert Greece, but investors are frustrated by the lack of clarity. With no emergency funding in place, Greece plans to sell treasury bills during this week to refinance a 5 billion Euro issue maturing on Friday. The outcome of this auction is in the blue. Concerns on Greece’s ability to refinance would for sure put the Euro under new pressure. The Euro has been constantly falling since it peaked at 1.3140 in mid-October as the euphoria over the European Central Bank scheme to buy government bonds to help support Spain’s debt burden faded.
The European ministers agreed yesterday to grant Greece two more years to reach its budget target, but disagreed over who should shoulder the additional 33 billion Euro cost. Both Germany and Finland have to go back to their parliaments for final approval. The dollar index a measure of the dollar against six major currencies rose to its highest level since early September. Uncertainties on how US lawmakers shall tackle the “fiscal cliff” of spending cuts and higher tax rates may, however, come back and haunt the dollar. With the dollar also under pressure, JPY will again appear as a “safe haven” among currencies. USD/JPY is trading at 79,285.
Oil prices are under new downward pressure. Brent crude is tipping below USD 109 a barrel. New forecasts from IEA, The international Energy agency, IEA, is predicting that the United States would pass Saudi Arabia as an oil exporter by 2015 and become a net exporter of energy by 2020. Precious metals fell back yesterday consolidating heavy gains from last week-lows. Gold is at USD 1725 and Silver trades at 32.40.
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понедельник, 12 ноября 2012 г.
Fear of “Fiscal cliff” dominates markets
By demanding higher taxes for the rich as a condition for any budget agreement with the Republicans, President Barack Obama, has opened the fiscal battle that is going to dominate the first months of his second term. Strengthened by the elections Obama has invited Republican leaders to a first round of high-stakes negotiations to prevent the fiscal cliff – a mix of $ 600 billion in spending cuts and tax rises that will go into effect next year unless a deal is reached by 31st December. In spite of some more optimistic signals markets seem to have built in prospects for a no-deal. Combined with technical analysis the development points towards a substantial correction in shares and the security markets in the coming months.
Talks to prevent that scenario, which could tip the US into recession and have disastrous effects on the global economy, were put on ice during the election campaign. Sticking to his principle stand that individuals like himself with an annual income of more than $ 500 000, must take their fair share Obama has kept the door open for details in a compromise package that can open for new ideas. A senior Republican Senator voiced Sunday support for the idea that increased tax revenues from wealthier Americans ought to be a part of a compromise to avoid falling over the “fiscal cliff”.
Global markets are watching Washington’s steps with increased worries. The Asian markets continued to fall in to-day’s morning trade in spite of a smooth Chinese leadership transition and better industrial production, investment figures and retail sales coming out of China for October. The Chinese authorities also seem to have inflation under better control, and the GDP for 2012 seems to end around the predicted 7,6 percent. A shrinkage in the Japanese in last quarter with 0,9 % also weighed in on investor’s sentiment in Asia. The contraction suggested faltering global demand and weaker consumer spending, and might push the world’s third largest economy into mild recession.
The Greek parliament which last Thursday approved new austerity measures, adopted yesterday night a new tough budget for 2013. European Finance ministers are meeting in Brussels to-day to discuss unfreezing of lending to Greece. There is no agreement within the Euro zone on how to make the debt sustainable. It seems, however, that Athens will be given two more years to cut its debt. Greece’s adoption of a new budget has for now stopped the free fall of the Euro. Euro/USD is trading 0,2 % up at 1.2730. USD is gaining against JPY at 79,485, but is weaker towards Australian dollar, the New Zealand KIWI, Swedish and Norwegian krones. Oil prices have stabilized with Brent trading above 109. Gold and silver, the big winners last week, continue slightly up with Gold at 1735 and Silver 32,62.
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пятница, 9 ноября 2012 г.
Global markets down on new uncertainties
Stocks fell in Europe, the United States and in morning trade in Asia and could be in line for more weakness as worries about Washington’s ability to find a timely solution to the “fiscal cliff” continue to dominate investor thinking. Along with new fears on how the Euro zone shall tackle its debt problems, global markets are set for a dumpy ride for the end of the year. As stock markets fall the Euro is under renewed pressure and trades at a two-month low. In spite of the Greek Parliament’s approval of new austerity measures yesterday, Greek bail-out funds are kept on hold. The German Minister of Finance stated that the approval of the austerity package was not enough to keep Greece in the Euro.
McDonald’s shares fell 2 percent after the world’ largest hamburger chain reported its first monthly drop in global sales since 2003. Another heavy weight, Apple, fell 3,6 % and is down 20 percent from its all-time high of USD 705 a share in September. The leading chips supplier, Qualcomm, was the exception gaining 4,4 percent on an otherwise dark session. Investors worry that if no deal is reached in Congress over some 600 billion in spending cuts and tax increases, the slow recovery seen will be reversed. A comprehensive agreement to avoid the “fiscal cliff” still seems possible. A more likely scenario is for political leaders to find a temporary fix to buy time until the new Congress and Obama are sworn in early next year. The prospect of haggling over the budget has deepened investors’ uncertainty and tends to explain market’s reactions over the last days.
The Euro was furtherly undermined after the European Central Bank, ECB, as expected kept rates on hold yesterday. The President of ECB, Mario Draghi, sounded downbeat on the euro zone economy and stated that he was ready to start new purchases of bond. Faced with overwhelming problems European leaders once again seem to be mostly occupied by buying time. This creates downside risks for the Euro which is likely for a new test of bottom levels between 1.20 and 1.25 seen some months ago. The announcement of European bond buying and expectations for continued monetary easing in Obama’s second term has strengthened gold which has jumped more than 50 dollars since the beginning of the week, trading at 1735.
Oil prices have stabilized and copper is up. Brent crude is at 107,58. China presented lower than expected inflation figures and other data that indicates a slow turn around in Chinese economy. The Chinese Communist party congress is simultaneously electing a new leadership, securing a smooth transition to a younger generation of leaders who will be faced with corruption, economic and political reforms as their major challenges.
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четверг, 8 ноября 2012 г.
Wall Street sinks on fiscal cliff fears
The Dow Jones industrial lost more than 300 points in a sell-off on Wednesday one day after the reelection of president Obama. The major stock indexes were down over 2 percent in the wake of the US presidential elections as investors focus shifted to the looming “fiscal cliff” and the troubles with the Euro zone. The American indexes closed at their lowest levels since early August. The stock exchanges in Europe had experienced similar steep falls earlier on Wednesday with the debt crisis and new austerity measures in Greece back on the top of the agenda. Asian stocks also tumbled as US fiscal cliff looms.
Financial stocks and energy shares, two sectors that could face increased regulation after Barack Obama’s re-election, were hardest hit. Oil prices which started the day on a positive note fell 4 percent. Brent crude is trading at 107.80 and New York crude is back below USD 85 a barrel. After the elections considered as a major source of market uncertainty are finished, focus has turned to the “fiscal cliff”. Investors worry that if Democrats and Republicans are not able to agree on spending cuts and tax increases amounting to USD 600 billion, the overall economy will seriously suffer and derail the economic recovery.
The fall in the stock markets yesterday were spurred by comments from the President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, stressing that also Germany started to feel the impact of the financial crisis. A corresponding report from the European Commission concluded that there barely would be any growth in the Euro zone next year. The reports dashed any hopes for short term improvement. Some analysts, however, saw the slide in stocks as a buying opportunity arguing that Europe’s troubles already were priced into markets. The Euro which made a strong rebound in the morning yesterday by bouncing back into the last weeks trading range between 1.28 and 1.30 versus dollar plunged hundred points and continues down in early Asian trade at 1.2750. Japanese yen is strengthened against the green back at 79,85. Precious metals have fluctuated heavily during the start of the week. After recovering from the low 1680 last week, Gold jumped to 1725 after the outcome of the elections, fell down to 1708 and is now trading at 1715.
In Athens Greek police fired teargas and water cannon at protesters hurling petrol bombs outside parliament in one of the biggest rallies in months against new austerity measures necessary to release bail-out funding from the International Monetary Fund, EU and the European Central Bank. Parliament approved the austerity measures by a razor thin margin in a heated debate into Thursday morning. The measures will make it easier to hire and fire workers. The junior ruling partner, the Democratic left, abstained, but New Democracy, the part of Prime Minister Antonis Samaras, and its Socialist Pasok allies were able to muster 153 out of 300 votes. 150 were necessary to secure the approval of spending cuts, tax hikes and weakening of labor’s rights.
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среда, 7 ноября 2012 г.
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Dollar falls on Obama victory
Securing victory in important swing states as Ohio, New Hampshire and Florida, President Obama seems to have won a clear majority and reelection in the US Presidential elections. As the results started to come in during the night, stock futures and the dollar fell against a basket of major currencies. Euro/USD which slipped to 1.2760 on Monday is up to 1.2860 in morning trade in Asia. Gold jumped 40 dollar to 1725 and benchmark treasuries rose. Also oil prices are up. NYMEX at 888 and Brent crude trading at 110,80. Asian shares rose on Obama’s reelection. The result means an end to the uncertainty which have ridden the markets for last weeks, and signals no dramatic shift in US economic policy.
Obama’s victory is in line with market’s expectations. A close race was, however, expected. The general view is that a second Democratic term under Obama would favor bonds. It is perceived that Obama favors bonds and low interest rates. The Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, is generally seen as more business friendly. As a former business executive he is seen as more supportive for equities. As results came in, US futures fell while Asian shares rose amid relief that there was a clear-cut result. The South East Asian Pacific Index, MSCI, was up 0,4 %.
The general signal coming from world markets is that the election outcome is in line with expectations. The temporary fall in the USD suggests that any precautionary positioning in USD has been premature. The Australian AXJO index rose 0,5 percent supported by overnight rise in commodities that boosted mining stocks. The Australian dollar hit a five-week high at 1.0461. Euro/USD touched a session high on 1.2876 being safely backed in the corridor between 1.28 and 1.30 which we have seen over the last five – six weeks. Analysts see Obama’s victory as a continuation of monetary quantitative easing. Active use of the printing press would put pressure on the dollar and boost bonds.
The big domestic challenge for Obama is seen to be cooperation with a Republican dominated Congress in how avert the looming “fiscal cliff” where USD 600 billion worth of spending cuts and tax increases risk pushing the economy into deep recession. Any sharp downturn in the world’s largest economy would raise concerns about demand for industrial metals. The markets first reaction has been to send commodities, oil and precious metals higher.
In Greece parliament later today is going to vote on a package of 13,5 billion Euro of spending cuts and tax hikes. These austerity measures are crucial to unlocking 31,5 billion euro in aid from global lenders to keep the debt-ridden country afloat. A negative vote is going to put the Euro under new pressure.
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вторник, 6 ноября 2012 г.
EURO drops to two months low
The Euro continued to fall and reached its lowest level against the USD in two months trading at 1.2787 Tuesday morning. The outlook for the Euro is clouded by uncertainty over the outcome of a Greek parliamentarian vote on further austerity steps needed for Athens to secure international aid. Prior to the vote in the Parliament on Wednesday Prime Minister Antonis Samaras stated that Greece would run out of funds within some few weeks without a quick international bailout injection.
The Greek Parliament shall vote on a package of measures of cost cuts and tax hikes of a total value of 13,5 billion Euros by 2016. Approval of the measures are crucial to unlocking 31,5 billion Euros in aid from the International Monetary Fund, IMF and EU. Release of the bailout funds have been kept on hold for months. The uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the parliamentarian vote, has pushed the euro out of the 1.2800 – 1.3000 trading range held since mid-September. The next immediate technical support level is around 1.2740.
Stocks advanced modestly in New York on Monday in a quiet session the day before the presidential election. President Obama has a slight lead in the last opinion polls, but whatever the outcome the election’s resolution will finally end the uncertainty that has kept the markets stagnant for the past few weeks. Reelection of Obama or a Romney victory could anyhow lead to a relief rally. Nasdaq was the strongest performer yesterday helped by a rally in Apple. Apple’s stocks rose 1,4% after falling 17 percent since its closing high of USD 705 on September 21.
The Australian dollar is steady at USD 1,0369 prior to Australian Reserve Bank’s rate decision later today. A rate cut of 25 basis point to cash rate to 3,0 % is expected. In relation to Japanese yen the USD eased to 80,23 after rallying to a six-month high of 80,68 on Friday.
Oil prices steadied. Brent crude is trading at 108 a barrel caught between uncertainties on the outcome of the US presidential elections and worries about Greece and the euro zone crisis which could delay a global economic recovery and hurt oil demand. Gold (1686) and silver (31.10) have picked up from its lows on Friday.
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понедельник, 5 ноября 2012 г.
Election uncertainty tempers optimism
The USD continues to climb against all currencies prior to a presidential election, too, close to call. The Euro is once again under strong downward pressure with Greece back in focus after what is described as a “disastrous” 2013-budget. Both deficit and debt targets seem to overshoot due to a deeper than forecast Greek recession.
Greek and Euro zone policy makers’ effort to shape a deal to prevent the collapse of the Greece’s rescue packages, hang on the cliff. There remains room for nasty surprises and potentially a failure of the intended bailout. This has brought the possibility for a Greek exit from the Euro zone back on the agenda. Euro/USD is trading at 1.2831. USD is also stronger against JPY trading at 80,42.
Last week saw a string of encouraging data releases from the US culminating in Friday’s robust non-farm payrolls report on 171 000 new jobs created in October. The unemployment rate was up from 7.8 to 7,9 percent indicating a slow, but sustained economic recovery.
Uncertainty ahead of Wednesday’s US presidential election along with worries about the “fiscal cliff” of tax increases and spending cuts facing the United States, limited the feel good factor of investors. With the outcome of the elections hanging on the edge, markets are left concerned whether the newly elected president will have the political capability to deal with the fiscal cliff. Uncertainties related to automatic fiscal tightening may undermine the recent economic rebound. This does not bode well for general risk appetite.
Wall Street’s initial positive reaction to the positive labor figures quickly faded and gold and industrial metal prices sank with the dollar climbing sharply.
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пятница, 2 ноября 2012 г.
USA: the exchanges missed the real rally
Yesterday the stock market of United States finished trading session with considerable growth of main indexes, maximal for last 7 weeks. The index of economic conditions of ISM in the production sphere in October contrary to expectations increased from 51,5 points to 51,7 points; weekly data on number of primary requests for unemployment benefits showed decrease on 9 thousands to 363 thousands with average forecasts at level of 370 thousands; data of ADP showed employment expansion in October on 158 thousands whereas market average forecasts were 135 thousands; at last, the index of consumer confidence in October reached more than a 4-year maximum on a mark of 72,2 points, though a little didn't hold on to forecasts.
Following results of session the indicator of blue chips Dow Jones Industrial Average raised on 1,04 % to level of 13232,62 points, the S&P500 increased on 1,09 % to a level 1427,59 points, and the index of high-technology industries Nasdaq Composite added 1,44 % and reached a point of 3020,06.
In the raw market December futures for oil of Light brand rose in price for 1 % to level of $87,09 for barrel. At the same time volatility is increasing in trading of futures for oil of the Brent brand. Yesterday's statistics from Ministry for the Power Generating Industry of USA, shown essential reduction of stocks of oil in country which has supported prices of oil. As a result futures for oil of Brent brand continue to bargain around $108 for barrel. Gold with delivery in December on COMEX fell in the price for 0,2 % to level to $1715,50 for troy ounce. At the currency trading dollar got stronger against euro, the British pound and yen.
Today the long-awaited report from a labor market of USA for October will be announced. On forecasts data is expected to be quite different: unemployment rate can exceed previous indicator, but number taken out of agricultural sector can grow - that in turn can promote raised volatility of trading in the first half of session. It is necessary to note that as a whole this statistics is capable to set moods of investors. However reaction to it can appear to be short-term on the threshold of a coming election of the president of USA.
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четверг, 1 ноября 2012 г.
Days off in USA did not add enthusiasm to the markets
Yesterday finally trading in the actions in USA were opened after two compelled days off. The American investors began with purchases; however a positive dynamic was reduced after. Following results of the session on Wednesday the index of Dow Jones decreased for 0,08 %, S&P rose by 0,02 %, Nasdaq - for 0,06 %. Moods of investors could worsen with adverse statistics which has been presented yesterday.
The European markets bargained yesterday in different directions, but before closing amicably went to "a red zone". The index of London stock exchange FTSE 100 fell by 1,15 %, index of the Parisian stock exchange CAC 40 fell by 0,87 % and DAX fell by 0,22 %. Influence on moods of investors was rendered by statistical data on inflation and unemployment in Euro zone. The main attention of investors at the moment is chained nevertheless to the Greek and Spanish questions.
Oil futures this morning bargain in different directions, Brent decreases to 107.38 dollars for barrel, Light grows to 86.81 dollars for barrel.
On the average analysts expects that the volume of stocks of oil in USA increased by 1,5-1,75 million barrels. According to the Reuters agency message, in October oil production by the OPEC countries slightly grew. Proceeding falling of production in Iran and interruption of deliveries from Nigeria were completely compensated with the growth of production in such countries as Iraq, Angola and Libya.
Gold with delivery in December on COMEX went up in price for 0,4 % to level of $1719,10 for troy ounce. At currency trading - dollar weakened against euro and the British pound, but got stronger against yen.
Today in USA will be presented a lot of macroeconomic data, which may affect trading on global exchanges. Will be known forecast of ADP on employment, will be published statistics on the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits. Important will be data on construction spending and auto sales.
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