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Показаны сообщения с ярлыком FRS. Показать все сообщения

вторник, 30 апреля 2013 г.

30 APRIL 2013: S&P500 INDEX AGAIN APPROACHED ABSOLUTE MAXIMA




In the first day of the week the index of the wide market S&P500 closely approached recently established historical maxima and now has chance to continue an ascension on new heights. Following the results of the yesterday’s trading session the S&P500 index increased by 0,72%. Quotations stopped at the level of 1593,61 points. To an absolute record there was not enough one point only. As the closest level of resistance which can be reached within an ascending trend, we will allocate a level of 1610.

Bulls also were positive in the light of coming meetings of key central banks – on the 1st of May will be finished the next meeting of FRS, and on May 2 the decision on an interest rate will be made by European Central Bank. From FRS the investment community expects comments on recent deterioration of macroeconomic statistics and, respectively, promises of extension of QE at least until the end of the year; from the European central bank wait fall of an interest rate which ripened owing to lack of any signs of revival of economy of the region. Speculative expectations of cheap money as usual maintain appetite to risk, and Monday didn't become an exception.

The trading session at Asian stock markets takes place today with mainly positive dynamics, continuing yesterday's growth over the ocean, but the Japanese market which has come back from days off, looks worse than the colleagues. One of the reasons is dynamics in the currency market where USD/JPY pair continues movement under level 98, after it was once again rolled away from a level of 100 last week.

Also a big block of macro statistics has been issued today in Japan, mainly positive, however this factor is mainly ignored by Japanese investors. In particular unemployment rate decreased in March to 4,1%, expenses of households grew by 5,2% in annual calculation, the production PMI index raised to 51,1, and retails of the largest networks grew by 2,4%. Only an industrial production was worse than expectations and grew for March only by 0,2% at forecasts of growth for 0,4%.

In Australia, meanwhile, continues growth of the banking sector, and yesterday's leaders of growth - National Australia Bank and Australia and New Zealand Banking Group add today another 2,5% and 4,5% respectively.

Prices of oil and precious metals are weaker this morning. Brent is on a level 103.55$ per barrel – loosing 0.25%. Gold and silver are on a levels 1460.93 and 23.98 respectively.

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среда, 27 февраля 2013 г.

27 February 2013: Berlusconi “derailed” world stock markets


Yesterday we again could not see a uniform dynamics on the world stock markets. The European indexes fell off on news on outcome of the Italian elections, having lost on the average 2,5%. At the same time the American indexes could show ascending dynamics, having added about 0,7%.

There were a few reasons for activity of buyers in the American market. First, speech of the head of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) Ben Bernanke. The banker sounded the position concerning influence of a new round of the program of quantitative easing (QE3) on economy of the USA. Bernanke focused attention of investors on advantages of QE3, among which economic recovery against control of inflation at the level of 2%. According to the head of FRS, benefit from soft monetary policy outweigh the related risks so turning of stimulating measures is not necessary at the current stage.

Besides that, another source of a positive was data coming from the market of real estate of the USA. So, sales of new houses in the country unexpectedly grew by 15,6% in annual expression. Let's note that last year became the most successful in the housing market in the USA after 2009. In 2012 growth of sales of new buildings became maximum since 1983, having made 19,9%. It is necessary to note, that we can expect that real estate market will continue to develop this year as well, but definitely much slower.

Meanwhile, in Europe the main subject for discussion there are parliamentary elections in Italy. They caused a lot of noise and confusions in the financial markets. Profitability of the Italian bonds in the secondary market flew up to 4,8% that became a maximum level since the beginning of December, 2012. Besides, political risks in Italy led to euro exchange rate falling to a minimum level since the beginning of year. This morning, we can see EUR/USD pair traded on a level of 1.3076.

Risks of strengthening of debt crisis dragged off down world prices for oil. Brent is bargaining on a level 112.66$ and WTI on 92.78$ per barrel.

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