01 April 2013| Gloomy perspective for Cypriot investors

EURO/USD fell to its lowest level in four month Monday on concerns about the spill over from Cyprus bailout terms. The Euro hit 1.2791, just above the four month low of 1.2750 reached on Wednesday. The Euro was trading at a high of 1.3711 back in February. Trading activities have been low over the last days due to Easter holidays in Europe.

 The short and medium term effects of the Cyprus crisis inside the Euro zone are so far not fully digested. Russian investors are hard hit, but Western European companies and individuals using Cyprus for the same tax planning reasons have also suffered heavy losses as a result of the collapse of Laiki, The Cyprus Popular bank, and near bankruptcy of the biggest bank, Bank of Cyprus (BOC). This comes among rumours that the Cypriot banks lately have given politicians and close friends - favourable loans and credits.

 Small companies struggling to repay loans in Italy and Spain signal bigger problems on the horizon for the euro zone. Defaults by small and medium sized enterprises which are the biggest employers in Spain and Italy, are rising explosively spelling troubles for banks and countries in the heart of Europe’s debt crisis.  While Cyprus count for 0,2% of the total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the euro zone, Spain and Italy count for 28%.  Whether these countries will be able to pull themselves out of the crisis and avoid full-blown bailouts depends on their banks which are fighting with bad loans and decreased profitability.

 Recent news from the Cypriot Minister of Finance and the Central Bank tell that account holders would be hit much harder than firstly announced. Cypriot authorities are still putting strong restrictions on “safe” accounts with less than Euro 100 000 meaning that Cyprus for all practical purposes not any longer is a functioning member of a currency union. On deposits above Euro 100 000.00 - 37,5% shall be converted into shares in Bank Of Cyprus (BOC), 22.5% are going to be frozen and the remaining 40% might be used for recapitalization of BOC.

 This means that Russian depositors stand to lose billions of Euro in what Prime Minister Medvedev has described as a Soviet style confiscation of Russian accounts.  The Russian government will, however, not aid businesses that have lost money in Cyprus.  Deputy Prime Minister, Igor Shuvalov, stated yesterday that Moscow is going to continue to clamp down on flight capital to offshore financial centers. “It is a terrible shame that Russians lose money, but the government will not take action in such a situation”.

 Much of the Russian money in Cyprus, probably up to Euro 19 Billion in bank deposits, are flight capital where Russian companies and rich individuals have tried to avoid taxation in Russia. The authorities have formerly offered a tax amnesty for flight capital being brought back to Russia.
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22 March 2013: ECB gives Cyprus bailout ultimatum

The Cyprus drama escalated with furious banking employees protesting in front of Parliament as worries about the effect of the Cyprus-crisis on the euro zone intensified. Shares in Europe fall yesterday as did USD/EURO. The Euro is under continued downward pressure. The European Central Bank (ECB) simultaneously issued a bailout ultimatum that liquidity transfers to the Central Bank of Cyprus would be stopped on Monday unless Cyprus agreed on terms and conditions for a bailout.

In a bid to raise investments in a Solidarity Fund to raise the required Euro 5,8 billion that is necessary to unlock the EU/IMF’s Euro 10 billion financial assistance package for Cyprus, the Government yesterday succeeded in mobilizing support from all the political parties. The powerful and economically strong Greek Orthodox Church has also stated its willingness to contribute with cash injections and land assets. The Fund would be built up on possible future income from the oil and gas reserves on the continental shelf.

Any effort to speed up offshore natural gas exploration as a way of attracting desperately needed investment to save its teetering economy, might, however, be challenged by Turkey which questions Cyprus sovereign rights to explore and exploit what Turkey regards as disputed areas. According to the International Law of the Sea Convention agreement between the concerned parties is a prerequisite for starting drilling activities in disputed areas. A possible Turkish challenge gives an added dimension to the crisis as a stark reminder of the Turkish invasion of Cyprus in 1974.

Potential gas riches also seem to have been part of the negotiations the Minister of finance, Michael Sarris, is conducting in Moscow. The gas resources have been identified as one area where Russia might be interested in investing. A lot of rumors are surrounding these negotiations which so far has reached no breakthrough. Yesterday it was claimed that the second biggest bank, Popular Bank of Cyprus, was bankrupt, and that Gazprombank the financial arm of Gazprom, the world’s biggest gas company was ready to take over in a trade off with access to blocks on the shelf. That was denied by Gazprombank. It is, however, a fact that both Popular and the Bank of Cyprus are closed to bankruptcy.

Rumors were also spread that Cyprus has given Russia rights to establish a naval base in Meri. Russia might in connection with informal talks on the side line of the official negotiations, sounded out the opportunity to establish repair facilities for its merchant fleet in Cyprus. Similar sounding outs have been given to Greek islands. Nothing has yet been finally settled. Russia might be willing to extend the Euro 2,5 billion credit given to Cyprus for 5 years at 4,5% interest rate for 5 more years.

It is nevertheless worth reminding that England has had two military bases on the island since Cyprus gained its independence in 1960. There are also bases on the Turkish occupied northern part of Cyprus. On that basis a Russian naval base seems rather unlikely.

A delegation from the EU-commission headed by the President, Manuel Barroso, met yesterday with Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. Before the meeting Medvedev lambasted the EU’s handling of the Cyprus debt crisis comparing the “levy” with Soviet style confiscations. The fact that EU and the newly elected Cyprus president, Nikos Anastasiades, left Moscow, one of the most concerned parties, out in the dark regarding the bailout created outrage.

Officials in Moscow were privately skeptical to a Russian bailout or in Russia’s interest to provide further bridging loans. Commercial criteria would be the basis for any possible investments. This was clearly expressed by one Russian banker: “Buying worthless equity in a bank for a million or two. That is not going to bear very far here in Moscow”.

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21 March 2013: EU threatens Cyprus with cutoff of funds

Cyprus is considering to nationalize pension funds which hold between 2 and 3 million euros and issuing an emergency bond linked to future natural gas revenues as talks continue in Nicosia, Brussels and Moscow. The Government has decided to keep banks closed till Tuesday 26th next week in an effort to try to avoid a customer’s run on the bank when they open. The banks have been closed since Friday last week. The Cypriot Parliament on Tuesday rejected EU’s term and conditions for a Euro 10 Billion bailout and turned to Russia for aid. This comes amid threats for a complete cutoff in funds to Cyprus.

Finance Minister Michael Sarris has extended his stay in Moscow. Russian officials said that Sarris has asked for a further 5 billion euros on top of a five year extension and lower interest on an existing 2,5-billion euro loan given in 2011. Russian clients hold approximate 30 Billion Euros in Cypriot banks, and would be especially hard hit by the proposed bailout which threaten to confiscate 9,9% or more on all bank accounts with a balance above 100 000 Euros. That equals a confiscation of 3 – 5 B euros from Russian citizens’ dependent of which percentage is finally chosen. EU has indicated an even higher levy than 9,9% on deposits above 100.000.

Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev will today meet with a delegation from the EU Commission in Moscow. Both President Vladimir Putin and Medvedev have expressed outrage with the way both EU and the Cyprus government have handled the bailout question. Russia was in spite of promises not consulted in advance. Putin called the bailout package “unfair, unprofessional and with unprecedented consequences”.

In a statement yesterday Medvedev said that Euro zone ministers had behaved “like a bull in a China shop” and likened the proposals to Soviet-era confiscations. This made little impression on EU-leaders who continued to stress that the bailout was fair and urgent action needed to save the overblown banking system in Cyprus from collapsing. The European Central Bank (ECB) warned simultaneously that Cyprus was running out of time. ECB would pull the plug on Cyprus unless the tiny country of 1 million people, quickly accepts a bailout.

That made little impression on Cypriots who continue to balk at EUs demands for a confiscation of 5,8 billion Euros from private accounts. This has so far been a taboo in Europe’s handling of the debt crisis. Private accounts have been regarded sacrosanct and not touched. The reason why EU in relation to Cyprus has chosen to break with this sacred principle, is probably due to the fact that a big number of Russian accounts are involved. Facing an election in September the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, is afraid of being accused for bailing out rich Russian with for what might be claimed as German taxpayer’s money.

The first turbulence in global markets after the Cyprus crisis is slowly fading for now. Asian markets rose on FED chief, Ben Bernanke’s statement yesterday painting a more optimistic picture of the employment situation without indicating an end to monetary easing. The Euro has stabilized from steep falls earlier in the week. The handling of the Cyprus crisis has once again put the question of the survival of the common currency on the agenda and raised focus on negative growth, political instability and the mass unemployment inside the Euro zone.

On that basis global observers are asking whether the EU-leaders complete have miscalculated markets reaction in their handling of the Cyprus crisis. It is announced that the Cypriot President, Nikos Anastasiades, today is going to present his Plan B for how possibly get out of the crisis.

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19 March 2013: Deadlock over Cyprus bailout

The Cypriot parliament is scheduled to vote over the Brussels agreed bailout later today. The meeting for yesterday was postponed when party deliberations showed that there was no majority in favor of the package. The President of Cyprus informed Angela Merkel last night that he had not been able to mobilize a majority for the bailout package which has created anger and fury in Cyprus and shaken international markets. The initial reactions to the so called “levy” have been disastrous. It is likely that today’s scheduled Parliament meeting again would be postponed. A reject of the bailout shall most probably create new tumults in the markets.

The Cyprus government has decided to close the banks today and most probably for the rest of the week to avoid a rush on withdrawal of deposits. The ATM machines which were emptied during the holidays have been filled up again and are functioning.

The decision to enter private banking accounts and confiscate them at will, have had far reaching effects. Major principles are at stake. The decision to put a levy on deposit accounts have scared global markets. Nervousness and risk aversion are back in play with focus on the Euro zone. Stock markets in America, Asia and Europe fell dramatically yesterday with Asia recovering this morning after digestion.

The big question is that when this could happen to euro member with a tiny economy as Cyprus; constituting 0,2% of the total euro zone GDP, who might next in line? Spain, Portugal or Italy? If the Cyprus bailout continues to be handled in an unprofessional manner this can lead to contagion and a run on the banks all over the euro zone.

The plain content of the Brussels decision is that it overstepped and violated sacred principles of private property rights. Governments should not mess with citizen’s private banking accounts regardless of which strong arguments you think you have. The “troika” representing some of the strongest capital forces in the world, has stressed that Cyprus has an overblown banking sector. Germany and other Euro countries accuse Cyprus for money laundering and that rich Russian oligarchs presumably have deposited money in Cypriot banks.

But are these news have not come to light over night? They have lived with Cyprus since the breakdown of the Soviet Union when Russian businesses without a functioning banking system at home turned its attention to the visa free Cyprus. Anti-money laundering measures are functioning more efficiently in Cyprus today then did when Cyprus entered the European Union 10 years ago and the Euro in 2006. Cyprus has been following the same rules and regulations practiced inside the European union and the Euro zone relating to money laundering.

At the same time Cyprus has been living high on Russian capital injections. Banks, law offices and auditors have prospered and so has the real estate sector. Why this sudden change of heart? What justifies that euro ministers and President Anastasiades permit to give banks a green light to intrude on and steal from clients banking accounts regardless of whether you call it a “levy” and not theft or for that sake a bank robbery.

The Cypriot government has used the last 24 hours to try sugar a decision which from the very beginning was ill thought. Brussels have seemingly blessed that Cypriots are free to decide to exempt smaller savings account from the “levy” as long as the total confiscation stands at 5.8 Billion Euro.

That does not change the sacrosanct principles involved in spite of Euro ministers and the Cyprus government now pretending to be modern Robin Hoods stealing more from the rich than the poor. Russian and British companies and private accounts are most severely hit. President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Medvedev are understandably furious. Russia gave Cyprus a generous loan on Euro 2,5 billion in 2011. Nevertheless neither Euro finance ministers nor the Cypriot government bothered to consult Moscow before this crucial decision was taken.

The Cypriot Minister of Finance has planned to go to Moscow on Wednesday presumably to ask for better terms. We wish him a good trip. The Minister might find that the timing for asking for more favorable terms and conditions on existing loans is ill planned when it comes on the top of a confiscation of might be 4 – 5 billion Euros. Putin has rightly called Friday’s decision “unprofessional, unfair and creating a dangerous precedent”.

For clients of MAYZUS Investment Company it is once more important to stress. Whatever outcome the planned “levy” shall have no impact on their deposits with MAYZUS Investment Company. Only a tiny portion of our funds are placed in Cypriot banks. Client funds are with prime banks outside Cyprus.

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