07 MAY 2013: BULLISH STOCK MARKETS SET FOR NEW RECORDS

US and Asian stocks reached new record highs as the Japan’s Nikkei average soared 2,8 % on Tuesday morning.  For the first time since June 2008 the Nikkei broke above 14 000 as the market played catch-up from an extended holiday. The strong US jobs data eased concern over the health of Japan’s biggest export market. Japanese exporters as Toyota, Honda and Sony led the rally jumping more than 3 %.

In the US the S& P led by Apple and financials pushed further above 1600. The S & P has gained 13,4 % since the beginning of the year.  Decent earnings together monetary easing and low interests rates have helped the stock markets to new records. As long as the world’s leading central banks are providing markets with liquidity  the stock  rally is most likely going to continue at least in the short term.

Asia is today focusing on Australia where markets are waiting for the Central Bank of Australia’s decision on interest rate. Analysts are split on whether the interest rate would be lowered by a quarter point to a record low of 2,75 %. A jump in stock prices are then predicted. Australian stocks fall 0,4 % prior to the central bank’s verdict.  The Asian Pacific, MSCI-index, was as the Korean Kospi slightly down after big upward jumps on Monday.

In the currency market the Euro is on the defensive Euro/USD trading at 1.3077.  The head of the European Central Bank (ECB), Mario Draghi, stated yesterday that ECB is watching economic data and is ready to take further action if needed. The upcoming German elections in September make changes in the austerity policies unlikely in spite of Germany being under pressure from other EU-members.

While gold, USD 1465,  is losing ground on continued outflows in holdings at the world’s largest gold backed exchange traded funds, SPDR Gold Trust, crude and copper are steady.  Brent crude continues to trade above USD 105 a barrel.

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06 MAY 2013: US JOB REPORT EASES FEARS

The US stock markets reached new highs on Friday. The S&P 500 index smashed through the 1600 mark for the first time in history. All 30 companies on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose as that benchmark crossed 15 000 for the first time after better than expected jobs reports. Non-farm payrolls increased with 165 000 jobs in April. Analysts forecast was 140 000. The unemployment rate fell to 7,5%, the lowest level since December 2008. Asian stocks spurred higher Monday morning on the US job data.

The better than expected jobs report eased fears about the health of the world’s largest economy which remains on a path of modest, but resilient growth. The Federal Reserve (FED) indicated last week that it is prepared to increase the USD 185 Billion –a-month pace of its third round of quantitative easing. The new figures mean there is little chance for such an increase. The job creation in April was heavily weighted towards the service sector. The production side with construction was shedding 6000 jobs. There is also a dip in average weekly hours from 34,6 to 34,4.

The US job data follow central banks meetings last week. While the US FED expressed readiness to increase monetary easing, the European Central Bank (ECB) informed that if necessary it would consider taking deposit rates negative. The mere fact that the key central banks aired such an opportunity was enough to sustain the rally in stocks, bonds and credit demonstrated by the new records on Wall Street and the positive sentiments in Asia this morning. Decreasing rates meaning that stocks are the most attractive alternative investment.

Oil prices have also been given a boost by the US jobs reports. New York crude (NYMEX) is for the first time in weeks trading above USD 96 a barrel. Brent crude is at 104,50. Copper is in the limelight after a 6,5% rally to USD 7 270 on Friday. Copper has fallen nearly 20 percent in the past three months on worries of a slowing world economy. Japanese yen is falling against the dollar trading at 99,08 yen to a dollar. Euro/USD is at 1.3122.
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25 April 2013: Nikkei extends its sharp rally

The Japanese Nikkei index extended previous session’s sharp rally in early trade on Thursday. USD/JPY is steady on 99,41 and continues to lick at the magic 100 level. Euro/USD is 1.3046 up 50 points from yesterday when the Euro dipped under 1,30. The week picture inside the Euro zone points towards European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate cut next week. Both New York (NYMEX) and Brent crude are up. Brent trades at 102.18. Gold jumps 20 dollars to 1447 an ounce in Asian trading.

The Japanese ally is driven by expectations that yen weakness will spur strong earnings for local firms. Nikkei is up 0,3% to 167,10. The Asian Pacific, MSCI-index is also up 0,3%, basically on the belief that weak global economic data will encourage central banks to keep their monetary easing economic stimulus policies. US durable goods orders for March were disappointing, and weighed in on the strength of the dollar which is weaker towards Euro, Yen and other major currencies.

The growing expectations for an ECB interest rate cut helped offset the growth concerns highlighted by US durable goods. Durable goods orders posted its biggest drop in seven months in March. Together with a survey highlighting increasing pessimism among German business leaders in April, future forecasts are bearish. The sentiment in Europe is somewhat strengthened by falling bond yields in indebted countries like Italy and Spain. A possible end to the two months political deadlock in Italy, has further strengthened. A 37 years old has been appointed new Premier and the tenure for their 87 years old President is prolonged.

The US government will on Friday present its report on gross domestic product, GDP. The report is expected to show that the economy grew at a 3% annual in the first quarter rebounding from a 0,4 % gain in the final three months of 2012. For the current quarter an expansion of 1,5% is expected. Raising oil and copper prices indicate a turn towards more positive market sentiment. Gold which fell to USD 1322 after losing 250 dollars in two days, have recovered strongly to 1447.

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24 April 2013: Apple lifts Asia after false tweet

Apple climbed 4,9% to USD 425,95 in after closing trade yesterday night after reporting strong second quarter earnings. Apple also unveiled plans to double the amount of capital returned to shareholders after for a long time being heavily criticized for not sharing excessive profits. The Apple quarterly report made stock markets in Asia to rally. Wall Street recovered Tuesday after initial sharp declines sparked by an Associated Press tweet about explosions in the White House.

The false tweet by hackers of two explosions at the White House that injured US President Barack Obama, provoked a steep drop in stocks. The benchmark S&P index fell 16,6 points or close to one percent in 3 minutes. Index values of USD 136 billion were wiped out. Stocks quickly recovered minutes later. The tweet episode illustrates the advantages, but simultaneously the fall outs of an instantaneous pricing technology.

Asian shares advanced on Wednesday on the back of Apple and other solid US quarterly earnings. The Euro came under pressure by soft German data which underscored the fragile state of the euro zone economy. The Asia-Pacific MSCI-index climbed 0,8%. The Australian stock index gained 1.4% along with a firmer Aussie dollar. The positive US numbers also gave a lift to oil and other commodities. Copper is up after several day’s decline. Brent crude trades at USD 100,54 a barrel. Gold (USD 1426) and silver (USD 23,15) prices are up after falling back during yesterday’s trading.

The more positive tone in global equities markets seem to indicate that investors regard continued monetary easing by major central banks as justified. Monetary easing encourages investments in shares. But that also means that stock markets don’t reflect the real economic fundamentals. Equities continue to rally in spite of sluggish manufacturing surveys and weaker economic data from both the US and China, the two major engines in the global economy.

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22 April 2013: Gold rebounds; USD/JPY 99,84

Last week was dominated by an extraordinary fall of USD 250 fall in gold prices and heavy losses in other commodities. Gold demonstrated, however, strong resilience and staged a rebound. Gold is hundred dollar up from the bottom of USD 1322 an ounce last week. Copper is still weak. While Brent crude again trades above USD 100 a barrel. Strong retail buying in Indian and China strengthened gold which was seen as a buying opportunity. Gold reached the USD 1400 mark on Friday and trades at 1422 in Asia. Many investors have kept their strong faith in gold on expectations of high inflation and governments being unable to deal with it, and continues to buy gold.

The G-20 meeting in Washington ended on Friday without any conclusive results. Since 2010 the group has turned from being a cohesive group of the world’s most important economies into a body that spends hours of negotiating the punctuation in a communique. Japan was the focus for attention. In spite of the fact that the Japanese yen, JPY, has depreciated 20% in relation to most currencies since November last year, G-20 accepted Japan’s explanation that its monetary policy is aimed at price stabilization and economic recovery. Its strong monetary easing does not intend to manipulate its exchange rate.

As expected JPY as a result of the meeting, continued to slide in Asia this morning. USD/JPY reached 99,84 and is again licking the symbolic 100 level which most likely is going to be broken during the day encouraged by the Group of 20 endorsing of Japan’s reflationary policies. Following the meeting, players feel comfortable selling the yen further. Asian shares inched higher, but investors remained wary of volatility given the uncertainty of global growth prospects. Global stock markets might be on the verge of a selloff.

The International Monetary Fund, IMF’s forecasts for the G-20 meeting were out of date no sooner than it was presented. Weaker US labor market figures and Chinese economic growth in the first quarter, make it necessary to downgrade growth forecasts for the world economy. The G-20 meeting also given another stark warning that economic forecasts is not any precise science. The Harvard economists Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart’s have since 2010 postulated that when debt reaches 90% of Gross Domestic Product, GDP, growth automatically fell. This postulate has been the basis for government’s austerity measures especially in the Euro zone.

An Excel error put serious question marks with the evidence the economist have built their postulate on. For the first time in years it thereby is possible to put questions with postulates presented as science. The austerity measures in Europe are as most other economic theories are based on political attitudes. When such postulates end up in mass unemployment and social misery it might be right time to take a break and ask whether the austerity measures resulting in mass unemployment and social misery are the right prescribed medicine.

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04 April 2013: ECB under fire for Cyprus handling

Asian stocks fell as worse-than-estimated US economic data spurred concern about the pace of the US recovery as investors speculated whether the Bank of Japan (BOJ) would be able to meet forecast for monetary expansion and an inflation target of 2%. The MSCI Asia Pacific index slid 1% with carmakers as Toyota Motor declining on a stronger Yen. USD/JPY trades at 93.00. Copper prices, a strong indicator for economic growth, sank to its lowest level since August. Gold and silver prices plunged with Gold at USD 1546 an ounce. Oil prices fell two dollar a barrel.

The European Central bank (ECB) is meeting today in the aftermath of a botched attempt to rescue Cyprus. Bank shares have been tumbling across the Euro area and rattled confidence in policy maker’s ability to tame the sovereign debt crisis. With unemployment reaching a record high of 12,5%, doubts are growing about Mario Draghi’s forecast for a second-half economic recovery. The austerity measures prescribed from European bankers and politicians have so far dragged Europe into an even deeper recession.

The disconnect between official low lending rates and those businesses are actually charged, is also a growing concern for the ECB. More than four times as many small businesses in Spain were rejected loans in the second half of 2012 than in Germany or walked away from, too, expansive offers. The excess liquidity in the banking sector has halved over the last half year and lenders in the south European periphery might be in need of more central bank funding.

In front of today’s meeting critical questions are asked on the role ECB plaid in the Cyprus bailout. ECB initially welcomed and supported the Cypriot government’s plan to confiscate funds on all banking accounts including those below Euro 100 000. This was rejected by the Cypriot Parliament. A revised agreement was negotiated a week later under the threat of ECB cutting emergency funding to Cypriot banks. Additionally; capital controls were for the first time in the EU history introduced to avoid capital flight. Free movement of capital is one of the four basic freedoms EU cooperation is built upon.

The confiscation of private accounts and introduction of capital control have damaged investor confidence and banks reputation across the Euro zone. Between March 15 and 27 the Stoxx Europe 600 Bank index dropped 6,8%. The cost of insuring against default on European bank bonds have surged 41% in the same period. Partially responsible for a flawed bailout plan being presented to Parliament, ECB exacerbated markets reactions to the bailout and simultaneously harmed the trust in Europe’s crisis fighting abilities.

Analysts stress that even if the error originated in Cyprus, Euro Finance ministers and ECB’s big miscalculation were to support a flawed plan. This resulted in increased financial stress and uncertainties in global markets. The trust in the Euro was undermined. Whether Mario Draghi and the ECB today would be able to present the right damage limiting response, is an open question.

Three Supreme Court judges appointed by President Nicos Anastasiades will today start investigations into a decade of financial profligacy which brought Cyprus to its knees. They have also a mandate to look into the President’s own affairs after accusations of tipoffs that presumably saved close family for big amounts when of 21 million euros were transferred abroad days before the bailout plan was announced.

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06 March 2013: Increased risk appetite on Dow’s record-high

Asian shares extended gains on Wednesday following Wall Street’s record close. The Industrial average index, Dow Jones, ended at an all-time high as the pan-European Euro first 300 index closed at its highest level in 4-and-a-half year. The MSCI-index for Asia-Pacific added 0,9% while the Japanese Nikkei surged 1,3%. Copper, crude oil and commodity related currencies are all up. The USD DXY-index eased 0,2% against a basket of currencies.

The markets were spurred by fast February growth in the huge US services sector and bolstered by China’s announcement of record government spending in 2013. These factors boosted investors’ sentiment and hopes of economic growth and increased demand for gods. EURO, British sterling, GBP, and JPY which have been the big losers over the last weeks, have consolidated and gained some ground. Euro/USD trades at 1.3065. USD/JPY is at 93.22.

The strong rally in the stock markets is partially a product of the monetary easing policies conducted by the US Federal Reserve since last summer and followed intentionally and in practice by several other Western central banks. There have been a lot a spare capital on the side lines waiting to strike. Over the last weeks and months we have witnessed a recirculation of capital into the more risk prone equity market. The new records are a result of this recirculation. Major investors are gambling on a turnaround in the global economy and pushed their free cash into stocks in spite of the problems in the Eurozone and an overheated Chinese property market.

Oil prices are also up this morning. Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez lost his two years long fight with cancer and passed away this morning 58 years old. Venezuela is one of the biggest oil producing countries in the world, and Chavez has led a policy where a substantial part of the country’s oil riches have been transferred to the poor and have-nots. Chavez has also been a guarantor for domestic political stability and encouraged other Latin American countries to follow his suit. It remains to be seen whether the power vacuum created by his death is filled in such a way that political unrest and renewed pressure on oil prices are avoided.

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